Here are the latest public indicators about El Niño as of early 2026:
- Global outlooks through late 2025–early 2026 suggested a shift from La Niña to El Niño conditions was possible, with several major agencies indicating a growing likelihood of El Niño development in 2026, potentially during the May–July window or later in the year .
- The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and partners continued to publish quarterly El Niño/La Niña Updates, noting evolving sea-surface temperatures, atmospheric patterns, and regional impacts, with updates around late 2025 and early 2026 underscoring monitoring and revised outlooks as conditions shifted toward El Niño .
- U.S. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center has historically moved from neutral/La Niña to El Niño during this period, with probabilities fluctuating as ocean temperatures rise and zonal winds adjust, and many forecasts in 2025–2026 projected El Niño development within the 2026 window though not with absolute certainty .
- Regional agencies have reported mixed signals: some central Pacific measurements remained near normal in early 2026, while broader indicators favored a transition toward El Niño, leading to heightened attention from meteorological services worldwide for seasonal and extreme-weather forecasts .
What this means in practice:
- Global temperatures and rainfall patterns may become more variable, with warmer-than-average ocean conditions potentially amplifying heat extremes and shifting precipitation in many regions, including weather-sensitive areas like Europe, Asia, Africa, and the Americas .
- For policymakers and planners, updated ENSO outlooks are critical for anticipating droughts, floods, and tropical cyclone activity, so staying tuned to the latest WMO/IRI updates and national meteorological services is advised .
If you’d like, I can pull the most recent concise bulletins from the WMO and NOAA and summarize them side-by-side, or tailor the outlook to your region ( Prague, CZ or nearby) with expected impacts there.
Sources
Climate scientists estimate the warm weather pattern could begin to develop as early as May.
www.cbsnews.comAfter just a few months, La Niña conditions have ended and the tropical Pacific has returned to neutral conditions. Our blogger gives you the scoop on La Niña's end and the forecast for the rest of 2025.
www.climate.govFor October– December 2025, the probability of La Niña establishment slightly increases to about 60%, while the chances for ENSO-neutral conditions to persist decrease to around 40%. The chances of El Niño developing during the September–December period are negligible. National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) will closely monitor changes in the state of ENSO over the coming months and provide updated outlooks as needed. Factsheet: El Niño/La Niña Update (August 2025) عربي 中文...
wmo.intIn what could be bad news for Indian agriculture, conditions in the Pacific Ocean seem to be increasingly favouring the onset of an El Nino this summer.
economictimes.indiatimes.comLatest news on El Niño, the warm phase of the El Niño-La Niña climate pattern, which significantly alters global atmospheric circulation, affecting temperature
www.newsnow.co.ukEl Niño and La NiñaLatest status (March 2026) In the past month or so, the sea surface temperatures of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific rose and remained near normal
www.hko.gov.hkThe WMO El Niño/La Niña Update is prepared approximately every three months through a collaborative effort between WMO and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) as a contribution to the United Nations Inter-Agency Task Force on Natural Disaster Reduction. It is based on contributions from the leading centres around the world monitoring and predicting this phenomenon and expert consensus facilitated by WMO and IRI.More on El Niño / La Niña Monitoring and...
wmo.intA strong El Niño sounds ominous — but one expert offers some answers about what could be ahead for the 2023-2024 season. Forecasters say El Niño, a climate pattern known for warmer ocean temperatures and increased rain and snow, is likely here to stay until early 2024. A massive heat wave is putting nearly 100 million people under intense triple-digit heat in the coming days. Here's how El Niño is contributing to the high temperatures. … NASA has announced a major overhaul of its Artemis moon...
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