Numerical Weather Prediction at 60: A Journey of Innovation at the Met Office
Sixty years ago, the Met Office began a transformative journey that revolutionized weather forecasting in the UK and globally. The introduction of numerical weather prediction (NWP) in 1965 marked a landmark, initiating decades of scientific progress, technological breakthroughs, and steadily improving forecast accuracy.
Early Experiments and Technological Foundations
The story of NWP at the Met Office started in the early 1950s. Scientists like Fred H. Hinds, guided by John S. Sawyer, performed the first experimental forecasts using Cambridge's EDSAC computer. Despite technological limits, these tests laid the essential groundwork for future advances.
By 1959, placing the Ferranti Mercury computer—nicknamed ‘Meteor’—at Dunstable became a key milestone. It was the first computer dedicated exclusively to NWP research at the Met Office.
The Breakthrough of 1965
The real breakthrough came with the English Electric KDF9 computer, called ‘Comet’, installed at Bracknell. On 2 November 1965, the Met Office produced its first operational computer forecast, an event that drew wide media attention and launched a new era in weather prediction technology.
“On 2 November 1965, the Met Office produced its first operational computer forecast, a moment that received widespread media attention and signalled the start of a new era in weather prediction.”
Ongoing Advances
The decades that followed saw rapid advancements in both science and technology, further enhancing the capabilities and precision of weather forecasts.
Author’s summary: The Met Office’s adoption of numerical weather prediction six decades ago sparked a continual evolution in forecasting, blending pioneering science and computing to improve accuracy worldwide.