## TD Securities' 2026 Global Growth Outlook
TD Securities expects global economic growth to remain fairly strong in 2026 despite some uncertainties. The firm's latest report highlights resilience in the global economy due to substantial monetary and fiscal support sustained through tariff disruptions. This support is predicted to continue into the next year, maintaining stable global growth conditions.
## US Economic Outlook and Uncertainty
The United States represents the most significant uncertainty in the forecast. TD Securities anticipates the US economy to underperform relative to its potential in the first half of 2026. This view diverges from consensus opinions, with TD expecting the Federal Reserve to ease monetary policy more aggressively than currently anticipated to support the economy. They believe this is necessary to protect and help the economy recover to its potential by the year's second half.
## Inflation and Federal Reserve Policy
Despite expected growth, inflation in the US is projected to remain above target for the sixth consecutive year, though better disinflation trends may emerge in the latter half of 2026. The Federal Reserve, after a patient stance in 2025 amid tariff-driven inflation rises, is expected to ease more than the market currently expects during 2026.
## Market and Foreign Exchange Implications
TD Securities' outlook indicates meaningful implications for markets, particularly foreign exchange, as investors position for a changing US economic environment and policy shifts. The growth and inflation dynamics are likely to influence investor behavior and currency movements.
> "We are undoubtedly at a crucial juncture in the markets... The global economy has demonstrated resilience... which we believe will persist into next year, contributing to a stable global growth environment."
> Jayati Bharadwaj, FX and macro strategist, TD Securities
> "Our outlook calls for a more pronounced easing of the Federal Reserve's policies than what is currently reflected in market expectations and those of our peers."
> Jayati Bharadwaj, TD Securities
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TD Securities projects cautious optimism for global growth in 2026, while highlighting the US economy's uncertainty, the need for aggressive Fed policy easing, and persistent inflation risks. This nuanced outlook indicates a complex environment for investors and policymakers alike.
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Yahoo Finance — 2025-11-29