What’s at Stake for Transition Away From Fossil Fuels at COP 30

At the 28th UN Climate Change Conference (COP 30), countries are urged to accelerate the shift away from fossil fuels by redirecting public financial flows, increasing ambition in their nationally determined contributions (NDCs), and ensuring the energy transition is just and inclusive.

Two years after the historic COP 28 pledge, the commitment to move away from fossil fuels remains uncertain. COP 30 in Belém will test whether nations can transform their promises into concrete actions.

Commitments and Challenges

At COP 28 in Dubai, governments made a landmark commitment to phase out fossil fuels in an equitable, orderly, and just manner, enhancing the objectives of the Paris Agreement. However, progress since then has stalled.

Current fossil fuel production plans risk exceeding the limits needed to keep global warming below 1.5°C, with extraction projected to be over 120% higher by 2030 than compatible with this target.
No significant advancements occurred on fossil fuel transition during COP 29.

Legal Context

In July 2025, the International Court of Justice issued an advisory opinion stating that expanding fossil fuel production, including subsidies, may violate international law.

This ruling adds legal pressure on governments to align their energy policies with climate goals.

Conclusion

Despite earlier promises, the global fossil fuel transition faces major obstacles requiring urgent, unified action at COP 30 to avoid breaching environmental and legal commitments.

"Governments at COP 28 committed to transition away from fossil fuels in a just, orderly, and equitable manner."

Author's summary: The success of COP 30 hinges on countries' ability to translate past fossil fuel phase-out commitments into real-world policies that align finance, increase ambition, and ensure fairness in the energy transition.

International Institute for Sustainable Development — 2025-11-04