Who’s Really Most Vulnerable to Climate Change? SIDS, LDCs, and Adaptation Finance
As the world prepares for the so-called “adaptation COP,” focus returns to those considered “particularly vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate change.” But who exactly fits this category?
Climate agreements emphasize both least developed countries (LDCs) and small island developing states (SIDS). SIDS often receive significant attention due to their clear risks from rising sea levels and tropical cyclones; Hurricane Melissa serves as a recent example.
However, analysis reveals that on average, SIDS rank in the lower half of vulnerability indices, while LDCs generally show higher vulnerability.
Adaptation Finance Allocation
The distribution of adaptation finance is highly unequal, ranging from under $1 to more than $2400 per person annually. SIDS receive by far the highest per capita funding.
Therefore, more focus should be directed toward LDCs for adaptation financing, although SIDS may require different types of support. Additionally, distinct allocation criteria are necessary for addressing loss and damage.
Comparing Vulnerability Indices
Several indices aim to assess countries’ climate change vulnerability. The paper examines five well-known ones: ND-GAIN, WRI, INFORM CC, MVI, and PVCCI, each comprising multiple indicators. These are compared across three dimensions: overall risk, vulnerability, and exposure.
“Hurricane Melissa is just the latest reminder of that.”
“The allocation of adaptation finance, however, is extremely unequal, ranging from less than $1 to over $2400 per person per year, with SIDS attracting by far the most per capita.”
Author's summary: While SIDS often receive more adaptation funding due to visible climate threats, least developed countries face greater overall vulnerability and require increased financial support and tailored solutions.