Russia’s pre-war demands may get another look

At the end of 2021, when Russia tabled its draft documents on “legal and security guarantees from the United States and NATO”, demanding a halt to NATO enlargement, a rollback of Allied deployments, and a fundamental restructuring of European security, Western analysts dismissed them as unserious. They were labelled maximalist, delusional, or simply a pretext for war as Putin was already massing his armies around Ukraine. Weeks later, Russian tanks crossed the Ukrainian border and the drafts were filed away as historical curiosities, to be remembered perhaps as only the last written evidence of a diplomatic route Moscow never really intended to take. Four years of war might prompt a rethink.

Not because the Russian texts have become more reasonable, but because Europe has become more fragile. The US, preoccupied with Asia, has already drawn down elements of its posture in Romania. European budgets are stretched and domestic patience thin.

Source notes: In late 2021 Russia published two draft treaties with NATO and the United States outlining security guarantees and limits on NATO activity in Europe, alongside calls for a halt to NATO expansion and military deployments in the region. Western responses framed these proposals as maximalist attempts to constrain the alliance, but the subsequent four-year war in Ukraine has led some observers to reassess the proposals in light of Europe’s evolving security architecture and strains on European budgets and political will.

Four years of war may prompt a rethink.

Author’s summary: The piece argues that Russia’s 2021 security proposals, once dismissed as unrealistic, are reconsidered amid Europe’s increased fragility, shifting US posture in Europe, and stretched European budgets as the region reassesses security guarantees and alliance dynamics in the wake of the Ukraine crisis.

Brussels Signal — 2025-11-20

More News